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Posted: 9:30 AM- A month before the Sept. 11 primary, Dave Buhler has pulled within a nose of Jenny Wilson in the race for Salt Lake City mayor.

A new Salt Lake Tribune poll shows longtime front-runner Wilson at 25 percent and Buhler at 23 percent. That's a statistical dead heat - given the 4 percentage-point margin of error - and firms up these two hopefuls as the pair with the best shot among the nine candidates at advancing to the Nov. 6 general election.

However, Ralph Becker, at 16 percent, has gained ground. And even Mayor Rocky Anderson's choice to succeed him, Keith Christensen, who is lagging at 8 percent, could break through, in theory, because of the large bloc (24 percent) of undecided voters.

The Tribune survey, conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. of Washington, D.C., interviewed 625 likely Salt Lake City voters Aug. 6-8.

The results are good news for Wilson and Buhler and bad news for Christensen, according to Quin Monson, assistant director of the Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy at Brigham Young University.

"The disappointment here is for Christensen, who dropped his [Republican] Party affiliation, spent a lot of money and had the endorsement of Rocky Anderson," Monson said.

It's possible Anderson's backing isn't having the effect observers thought it would. When asked if they would vote for the mayor - if he had sought a third term - or one of the other candidates, 61 percent of respondents said they would opt for a challenger.

Although the race officially is nonpartisan, Salt Lake City voters have not elected a GOP mayor in more than three decades. Wilson and Becker are Democrats. Buhler is a Republican. And Christensen, who has raised more than $550,000 in the campaign, is now unaffiliated.

Even with the large number of undecided voters, Monson doubts the campaign is wide open.

"I wouldn't say it's up for grabs," he said. "The undecideds could well break down in a similar distribution to what we see now."

If Wilson and Buhler emerge from the Sept. 11 balloting as the top vote-getters, Monson said, "I wouldn't be surprised."

Nonetheless, he said, Becker does have a chance to squeak through the primary.

"But he has to get close to half of the undecideds and that's a tall order."

The poll shows Wilson, a current County Council member, and Buhler, a member of the City Council, have an edge in name recognition over Christensen, who hasn't held office for six years when he sat on the City Council.

Notably, Becker, a Democratic leader in the Legislature, was the least known of the major candidates in the survey.

"Wilson is looking consistently strong," said Kirk Jowers, director of the Hinckley Institute of Politics at the University of Utah. "Buhler has the inside track on that second spot, but I continue to believe it will be a very tight race for that second spot."

The low turnout expected for the primary makes it difficult to predict the outcome.

"The numbers indicate that people are not really focused on this [election campaign] yet," he said. "It's a name-recognition contest at this point and a quarter of those [questioned] can't even do that."

The top candidates' relative anonymity will change in coming weeks as they launch radio, television and mailing blitzes. And the money they have left to spend - after their latest media buys - also could come into play.

The latest disclosure forms showed Christensen with $262,558 left in the bank, followed by Becker at $138,101, Wilson at $114,660 and Buhler at $93,939.

Among the undecided voters is poll participant Diane Warsaw.

"There are a number of people I'm interested in," she said. "But I haven't decided yet."

Also in that group is Hillory Hippen, who said, "I don't have enough information yet."

What she does know is that she wants a stay-at-home mayor.

"I want somebody who will stick to the issues here in the city and not go traveling outside, as Rocky has," she said.

Poll respondent Neta McOmie said she is trying to decide between Wilson and Christensen.

"But I could change my mind" if another candidate vows to follow Anderson's initiatives, she said. "I'd like to see it continue, especially his environmental issues."

Wilson was upbeat about the poll results.

"At this stage, we're optimistic," she said. "Our focus is on getting out our vote. We have a great volunteer base."

And Wilson did very well in the survey among Democrats, who usually hold sway in Salt Lake City elections. According to the poll, she had the support of 43 percent of Democratic voters - more than doubling Becker's backing.

But Buhler views the poll results as showing his campaign has momentum.

"It's very encouraging," he said. "Our campaign is starting to catch fire."

He captured the largest chunk of Republican voters (49 percent) and LDS voters (40 percent).

Even if Buhler survives the primary, the real trick may be snagging more Democrats in order to have a chance in the finale. If he faces Wilson this fall, for instance, conventional wisdom is that the bulk of Becker's and Christensen's votes would flow to her, not Buhler.

But Becker expects to be in that November showdown. He believes much of his grass-roots campaign is flying under the radar and will show its strength in next month's balloting.

"We've been walking door to door since March," he said. "Our hope is that will pay off as we meet more people."

For his part, Christensen said his underdog status won't keep him from coming out of the primary.

"I'm not surprised that we're not leading," he said. "But I think you'll see a change in the coming weeks."

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